The market for classic MMORPGs is in good demand but therein lies the problem and how it will benefit Pantheon by not releasing before it's ready. Currently you have only a handful of MMORPGs in development with a classic MMORPG scope in mind. Some are already out and although somewhat popular, they won't retain much of a following in light of Pantheon once it's released. One game in this example is Project Gorgon. PG still has a niche playerbase but it typically serves as a holdover for some when looking to play other games that either they're waiting to be more polished or aren't out yet. Some are being made and either have very little following or capital from which to finish the product. Chronicles of Elyria and Saga of Lucimia are examples of the Classic MMORPG with bits in variation and currently both are struggling with development. Their promise appears to be faltering and don't look to be competition at all for Pantheon.
Now we get into the indirect competition. You have Camelot Unchained which has a few problems but seems to be carrying along. This is almost entirely a PvP MMORPG in a classic sense based on the game DAoC. Because of the focus on PvP, it's not expected to have any competing edge over Pantheon aside for possibly some aspects of the PvP demographic of which, in Pantheon is only 15% roughly. 5-7% of that isn't groundbreaking. The next would be Ashes of Creation. Not only is this not a Classic MMORPG, it's not really even in the same field as Pantheon. With their intent on action/twitchy gameplay, the focus on what appears to be an environmental PvP and their limitation to archetypal roles and class design, they aren't exactly a direct competitor. The additional issue of their recent venture into Battle Royale gameplay only causes them to deviate further from this path but also created unease in the community as well as the uncertainty with regard to the direction of the game. Ashes of Creation is more along the lines of a crowdfunded competitor to Elder Scrolls Online and looking to poach the blob of players who migrate around the popular competitive games of the season such as PUBG, Overwatch, Apex, Fortnite, etc.
With that all said, as of now, the only games that are more directly competitive are Project 99 Green which is a more limited EMU of Everquest and of course, WoW Classic. The former really won't have much of an effect both because it will release before Pantheon as they're looking at a late October release and because it's more in competition with P99 Blue. On top of that and probably the largest reason it won't be competitive is because it has a very limited playerbase in comparison to Pantheon, it won't have as large an effect. What is more than likely is P99 Green is being used to hold people over until the Alpha, Beta or Live versions of Pantheon.
As for WoW Classic, this is where it can get complicated, so bear with me. WoW Classic is designed to satiate the playerbase who grew tired of what WoW has become with recent expansions. Once Cataclysm was released, it was in essence a downward spiral in terms of acceptable content. People continued to play through it begrudgingly while others left, but there was a growing appetite for the Vanilla game. This fits inline with the desire for Classic MMORPGs but WoW being a 3rd generation MMORPG, this was more to do with being Classic WoW and not Classic as much in mechanics. This is where you have two segments. There are those who want to play WoW Classic because they want to play WoW when it had soul, heart and was what MMORPGs were about. Then you have another demographic who are playing it because they want to play an MMORPG with the classic mechanics.
Since 2006 and again in 2011, you had the introduction of action based combat or twitchy combat. This was what was used to compete with WoW since games operating as WoW killers couldn't quite do so. With a completely different combat design, it allowed some of those games to compete in parallel with WoW but not directly. There was a growing interest in these games because the standard tab-target methodical combat was less interesting to new inductees of MMORPGs and those who simply wanted a change. This started with Dynasty Warriors Online and Dungeons and Dragons Online. It then moved on to Terra which is when it took off and continued through the years to ESO, BDO and the like. However, that interest itself has also faded and you have a desire to return to the originals.
This demographic as mentioned in the earlier paragraph look towards games like Pantheon with interest but also see WoW Classic as a means to satiate that hunger.
Here's where that can be both a boon for Pantheon and a detriment to WoW Classic. WoW Classic is a point of nostalgia for both groups, those who want to replay the game and those who want classic mechanics are going to find that nostalgia for nostalgia sake, never lasts long. It withers very quickly and you find that your retention to the content you've already played many times before doesn't last as long as when you first played it. Especially if you burn yourself out by binging on the game trying to make max level. It's this reason WoW Classic will have a more difficult time retaining people. It's a known quantity so the growth they experienced in 2005+ won't really be the case in 2019/2020 and they'll start high with a subsequent drop off. The question is, when does the drop off occur? How many will leave?
By my guess I give it 3 weeks before you start to see reductions in numbers and continue to the 2-3 month mark. What they may see is 40% drop off or more by the 3rd month. Pantheon being a Classic MMORPG will mollify that desire for the Classic gameplay elements of MMORPGs. Because of that, they'll get what they want but with entirely new content and even new or interesting mechanics that many have wondered why they were never included in the past. Pantheon will benefit from WoW Classic and that's in part because WoW Classic already released and when Pantheon reaches Alpha, you can expect a number of those who played WoW Classic and left, those who are still playing and bored or those who are played and are interested in what else is out there will have a more vested interest in Pantheon and are more likely to take part in Alpha, if not, then the subsequent Beta.
Visionary Realms is in a good place. The only issue they have is in people who are eagerly awaiting the game and upset over the delays and I for one don't blame them. But releasing early at this point will be more harmful than helpful, not just from a development standpoint but it also won't really net them anymore people.
colonelfouts said: Wow very well put. Kinda puts my mind at ease. I was worried that with unlucky timing Pantheon would release right as a triple A sleeper dropped. I personally would stick to pantheon but I was scared a lot of others wouldn't even give it a shot given the choice.
Wouldn't worry too much about this, honestly. It won't take long for the community in whatever game to size that game up and render a verdict, good or not. There are many types of people with many interests, likes and dislikes. Pantheon is targetting (on a global scale) a fairly specific part of the market to kick off in the hopes of drawing others in, and I think they will.
Percipiens said:colonelfouts said: Wow very well put. Kinda puts my mind at ease. I was worried that with unlucky timing Pantheon would release right as a triple A sleeper dropped. I personally would stick to pantheon but I was scared a lot of others wouldn't even give it a shot given the choice.Wouldn't worry too much about this, honestly. It won't take long for the community in whatever game to size that game up and render a verdict, good or not. There are many types of people with many interests, likes and dislikes. Pantheon is targetting (on a global scale) a fairly specific part of the market to kick off in the hopes of drawing others in, and I think they will.
you know those critics that judge a car before they've even seen it in person or driven it? ye pantheon is a terrible game with terrible mechanics that only panders to pve carebears. (disclaimer: this is satire mocking prejudgement on a product that is in pre alpha under NDA. thank you for your understanding. have a nice day.)
Nothing kills a game faster than being incomplete / buggy at launch. Most of the inpatient people demanding it be released soon ate the same people who will give up and move on if it's not perfect.
We can only have two of the following, so we must choose wisely:
Cheap is already taken, since it's not being produced by a deep pockets studio.
Trasak said:I do hope an Angel Investor drops 10m on them once PF is done so they can contract out 20 or so contractors to crank out the world building. They don’t need to bring them on full time just to push launch ahead by a year or two.
$10 million would be nice. I recall it took $23 million to launch EQ1 twenty years ago. Now if we all would just double our pledges...