How many people follow a game does little for how well it will do. Warcraft had over 800'000 people following that game and it does not exsist. EQ1 had none of the common ways to reach gamers used today, let alone to target MMOers. And that games has dozens of expansions and been running for over 20 years. Big thing with these forums is most of us here have paid into PO to see it come to be. So IMO, its a solid number. This is 20k people that know what Brad and his team can do and want more. My guess is a high % of that 20k will be here at launch. For a small Indy game, thats huge. My guess is if things launch well, we will see a much larger player base. Im guessing at 80-150k people subbing. I hope VR gets slammed with 500k though lol.
Bazgrim said:Land said:Bazgrim said:Idk about 12-18 months to release.
So longer?
Yes. Almost certainly.
Land said:
Bazgrim said:You're also right that there are many tens of thousands more that are watching from a distance.
Cohh's VOD of the latest stream has 7.4K views...Even adding in the people that watched it live, makes your statement sound like nonsense to me.
That's hardly an accurate metric to measure it by. But even still, as of me posting this, that video is up to 45k views. And many videos on Pantheon's YouTube have 100-300k views. But this goes beyond people just watching YouTube videos. There are many, many more people that are simply aware of Pantheon's existence, but aren't quite sold on it yet. They may think it's a good idea, but they don't actually think it's gonna make it to launch. That's what I mean by watching from a distance. So as it becomes more and more clear that the game will indeed launch, and it's not just a reskin of 1999 EQ, that'll start to get the attention of those skeptics.
I think looking at numbers like web site hits and views are a bad way to think we know a customer base. I have watched many videos 2 and 3 times. Sometimes to get info refreshed and help me sleep lol. Awesome we have that many hits but I dont think we can point at that other then to say, good job VR. You are reaching people with your message.
If every one of those 20k were on the $5 monthly pledge, that would probably support a team of around 10-15? We need to give Pantheon more gas.
urgatorbait said:In the end, I don’t think it matters for most people how much longer it takes for the game to release, they will pick it up and play it when it does. If they like the finished product, they will play it regardless of release date.
second thought... I wonder how many people there are out there like me who aren’t playing or subscribed to any games at all. People who are simply waiting for a game (like Pantheon) to come along that they want to invest their time and money into.
Just ny two coppers...
wbarksdale said:If every one of those 20k were on the $5 monthly pledge, that would probably support a team of around 10-15? We need to give Pantheon more gas.
As was recently discussed/argued on Reddit, they would need between 500-1000 new pledgers per month all pledging at least $100 each, just to cover monthly payroll. As we're not seeing that growth anywhere (not here, not on the subreddit), it's pretty clear pledges alone are not even paying the team's wages. As a consequence, the bills are likely piling up, and have been all along.
That's fine, lots of companies initially run a deficit budget, counting on future revenue/profits to pay off that debt.
Yet, it does put a time limit on how long they can dilly-dally. Eventually, this type of financial arrangement may require some more hard choices regardng cutting content or pushing it off until the first expansion. (like the third continent).
Make no mistake, I would be thrilled if they managed to pull it off, but mortgage payments wait for no man. :)
vjek said:As was recently discussed/argued on Reddit, they would need between 500-1000 new pledgers per month all pledging at least $100 each, just to cover monthly payroll. As we're not seeing that growth anywhere (not here, not on the subreddit), it's pretty clear pledges alone are not even paying the team's wages. As a consequence, the bills are likely piling up, and have been all along.
They posted their salaries on reddit?
Production costs were given?
You have all the numbers for monies paid?
What is their current debt?
Did you confirm all of the employees are on a salary?
Venjenz said:Therek said:Exactly. The OP’s point was that the community appears to be alive and well for a game in pre-alpha. It doesn’t seem like most people are feeling pessimistic. If you’re feeling impatient or frustrated, perhaps just step away and focus on other things for a while. We’ll be here when you get back :)
Or perhaps stay and engage in dialogue so the entire development forum doesn't become a useless echo chamber of fanboi-ism. Criticism advances progress, as does a healthy dose of realism.
Developers ignore reasoned, sober, critical diaogue at their own peril, as does their playerbase.
Tigersin said:vjek said:As was recently discussed/argued on Reddit, they would need between 500-1000 new pledgers per month all pledging at least $100 each, just to cover monthly payroll. As we're not seeing that growth anywhere (not here, not on the subreddit), it's pretty clear pledges alone are not even paying the team's wages. As a consequence, the bills are likely piling up, and have been all along.
They posted their salaries on reddit?
Production costs were given?
You have all the numbers for monies paid?
What is their current debt?
Did you confirm all of the employees are on a salary?
No, he doesn't and any information given by community members is pure speculation.
Pledges are not our only source of generating development revenue, we have openly stated that we have several private investors and are seeking larger investment but we are not in any danger of failing to launch the game. We would really like to hire more devs in key areas like art, world-building etc. which are very time-consuming as that is where our biggest delays come from currently.
Any other information being discussed about our finances are just wild guesses/assumptions and should be ignored. Dev's are not working for free, anyone saying so should be discredited as unreliable and ignored.
Ithaca said:How do you guys feel about having already over 20 thousands people on the Pantheon forum while in Pre-Alpha?
I think that is tremendous! We are probably 12-18 months from release... 20K people on the forum, we can assume there are much more people interested that did not want to donate at this point but might join later.
Congrats VR! As always, keep up the great work!
More the merrier. Just keep true to those game tennents. I want Pantheon to grow and be successful as much as possible because I am not sure we'll ever see another game like this in my lifetime if this one fails.
antonius said:This is exactly the problem I have been saying for years will arise with an endless development time. The reality is that people start losing interest and faith in the project and honestly, at a certain point, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of doom when that happens. You just cannot take 10 years to release a game. People cannot hold their attention and interest that long. Yes, obviously some people who are willing to overlook anything and everything in their positive outlook exist, but they are the small small minority, even among the die hard fans. I personally am dying for this game, and have been for a long time, but frankly, I think if release is still like 3 more years away, then that is a death sentence before this thing even gets alive.
My thoughts have been that release should have come this year, but that end of next year is about the longest this really can afford to take. If we are talking end of the year for alpha now, plus like 2 years of alpha, and like a year of beta...not good. I am not disputing the "this kind of thing takes time" etc type posts, but just pointing out that in the end, no one gives a ****. Not the least of the reasons is that the team appears to continually be unable to come even close on their estimated time lines and goals. That does not auger well for several reasons. The fact that is takes or does not take a certain amount of time with a small team will not alter the commercial reality, and furthermore, this team only has so much money, and the longer it takes, the higher the chance that they run out of money and with a lack of measureable progress and semi-imminent release, the odds of getting more get smaller. In the end, that will just result in this entire project getting shuttered.
Unfortunately, after years of this process with nothing really on the horizon, we are seeing more and more of the inevitable negativity given the apparently diminishing prospects for release. I mean, how many zones are we expecting this thing to have at release? 30? 40? 60? How many have we actually seen anything of? 4? 5? Legitimate based on team size or not, we just cannot have this thing in development for 10 years. I seriously hope something changes in a big and positive way because I think the current pace will just lead to a slow bleed of interest, enthusiasm, money and ultimately progress until it comes to a halt. Boy do I hope I am wrong though.
It helps to understand, after 2011, the standard for an MMORPG has been 4-7 years for development. Some have taken longer such as ESO which took 8 years. Pantheon had a failed Kickstarter in 2014 and didn't start replacing the assets from their display world using default unity assets with their own until late 2015. By that measure due to how this game is created, you go from that. That would mean the game is 3 years and 8 months in development. Still shy by 4 months of the earliest likely release. However, you have to account they aren't a major developer with a publisher and given the scale of the project, the early estimate of 4 years isn't realistic.
This is why you gauge closer to the 7 year mark which is still within the standard. That would put them at a November 2022 release. If you go beyond that, it becomes more difficult as something I had to deal with as I followed ESO since 2006 having friends who worked directly in the development of the game.
It helps to understand that most games give no concept of their existence to the public until mid way or late into their Alpha process. The problem here is people think that point until release is how long they generally take to develop. That's far from the case and with Pantheon, it has the detriment of showing a full view from inception of the game with a large segment of people who may have unrealistic expectations. To add, they also tend to be somewhat vocal about it.
So with that said, this is of little concern if you know how this process works and what to expect. I understand your unease as I had that for ESO and as madenning as it was, it helped put into perspective just how difficult this process can be. Not to mention how having to manage an unruly or demanding playerbase during the most difficult early periods can't help.
Janus said:It helps to understand, after 2011, the standard for an MMORPG has been 4-7 years for development. Some have taken longer such as ESO which took 8 years. Pantheon had a failed Kickstarter in 2014 and didn't start replacing the assets from their display world using default unity assets with their own until late 2015. By that measure due to how this game is created, you go from that. That would mean the game is 3 years and 8 months in development. Still shy by 4 months of the earliest likely release. However, you have to account they aren't a major developer with a publisher and given the scale of the project, the early estimate of 4 years isn't realistic.
This is why you gauge closer to the 7 year mark which is still within the standard. That would put them at a November 2022 release. If you go beyond that, it becomes more difficult as something I had to deal with as I followed ESO since 2006 having friends who worked directly in the development of the game.
It helps to understand that most games give no concept of their existence to the public until mid way or late into their Alpha process. The problem here is people think that point until release is how long they generally take to develop. That's far from the case and with Pantheon, it has the detriment of showing a full view from inception of the game with a large segment of people who may have unrealistic expectations. To add, they also tend to be somewhat vocal about it.
So with that said, this is of little concern if you know how this process works and what to expect. I understand your unease as I had that for ESO and as madenning as it was, it helped put into perspective just how difficult this process can be. Not to mention how having to manage an unruly or demanding playerbase during the most difficult early periods can't help.
Thank you. Deeply.
Janus makes a good point but so too does Antonius. The perfect is the enemy of the good.
I am inclined to think that a *good* game in 2020 may be better for VR and for Pantheon than a *really* good game in 2022.
By good game I mean smooth release and relatively free of major bugs as well as a game with a lot of content and decent graphics if not better.
Releasing a crappy game in 2020 would be a disaster. A release with many bugs and a clearly unfinished product would be a disaster. A release with worse than decent graphics would be a disaster.
Release of a playable game next year positioned as open beta (with subscriptions) or whatever the newfangled term for that is is one option if they want the money that will come with subscribers but they don't feel the game is quite ready for official release. Obviously this has negatives.
Id like to say 20k is a good number for forums, half of which might not test the game, the 1/4 are waiting, while the rest are going to be involved in testing of some sorts.
I really think the majority of "real" testers will be very small figures, and some may help putting 1 or 2 reports out.
I also believe with the lack of quality games on the market, myself included have grown a distaste for these FPS games on the market, and look forward to return back into the MMORPG scene once again. Every time i get annoyed with games on the market i just feel like fireing up EQ again. Why EQ? because it still has a good player base and it is more hardcore then most games on the market. It is not for everyone being that it is so outdated.
Hopefully soon we alpha people will have the chance to help stress test the servers, and areas.
I have time on my hands, so i am eager to help test.